Be Afraid.  Be Very Afraid

by James Staudt

copyright 2018, James E Staudt, all rights reserved

With John Bolton appointed to replace H. R. McMaster as National Security Advisor to President Trump, President Trump is replacing one of the few remaining "adults" in the Trump administration with one of the most dangerous people in Washington, D.C.  General McMaster had a distinguished military career and in his book Dereliction of Duty demonstrated that he understands how the US can be drawn into unnecessary wars and then have these wars mismanaged and bungled by politicians and policy advocates who do not truly respect the military.  It is a great book worth reading that demonstrated that Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan had a great deal in common.  In contrast to General McMaster, Bolton is the consummate Washington advocate.  He has cycled in and out of positions with Republican administrations and the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) - the right-wing "think tank" that promoted the Iraq War on behalf of it's defense industry benefactors under the guise of the Project for a New American Century.  Unlike McMaster, Bolton has no professional military or intelligence background to qualify for the post that he will now hold.  He has long been a policy advocate and therefore has the same cognitive bias that blinded Paul Wolfowitz (another AEI alum who guided the US into the Iraq War) as described in my book Grand Collusion.  Bolton is a staunch believer in "regime change" not only in Iran and much of the Middle East (except of course Israel, where he is close with Benjamin Netenyahu) but in North Korea.  As such, there is no chance that Bolton will advise President Trump to avoid war with either Iran or North Korea.

This might not be quite as alarming were President Trump more seasoned on foreign policy or more contemplative in nature, but he is neither.  It also might not be so alarming if congress had not surrendered its constitutional responsibility to authorize war with the horribly misguided Authorization of the Use of Military Force (AUMF), which effectively gave the president blanket authority to wage war against anyone and anywhere he chooses.  While intended in principle to be used against the perpetrators of the September 11 attacks, the AUMF has been used by presidents Bush, Obama, and now Trump to conduct military operations in the jungles of Niger, in Yemen, in Libya, and elsewhere against people who bore no responsibility for the September 11 attacks.  In effect, President Trump has already been granted the authority to go to war against Iran and North Korea should he choose to, and with John Bolton at his side, he will most certainly be advised to do so.  Congress cannot stop President Trump from going to war without repealing the AUMF, which will never occur with a Republican-controlled congress and would be very unlikely even if the Democrats controlled congress.  Moreover, it would require a veto-proof majority to repeal the AUMF because President Trump would no-doubt veto such a measure.

Bolton's appointment also demonstrates the hypocisy of President Trump.  As a candidate, then Mr. Trump repeatedly emphasized that he had been opposed to the Iraq War.  Why then would he turn around and appoint one of the architects of it to the critical role of National Security Advisor?  Candidate Trump was clearly telling us what we wanted to hear, not what he truly believed.

My fear is that President Trump will act as many embattled presidents do and go to war - hoping that the nation will rally around him as often happens to presidents when war occurs.  The Mueller investigation appears to be honing in on something that is creating more agitation for President Trump.  We don't know if Mr. Mueller will find actual collusion with Russia, but he could come across something else that is either embarrassing to President Trump or creates problems with people in his administration or members of his family.  For this reason, war with North Korea or Iran could start looking like a very attractive distraction from the investigation while also serving to rally the support of Americans.

So, be afraid.  Be very afraid.